【摘要】 区域PRED系统是一个具有复杂结构的开放性巨系统,具有高阶次、多变量、多回路和高度非线性的反馈结构,且系统行为往往具有反直观性的特征。在深入分析西安市PRED系统的组成因素及其反馈关系的基础上,运用系统动力学构造出该市PRED系统模型。以模型为基础,建立西安市PRED系统协调发展的3种方案,即无为方案、环境治理方案、综合治理方案,并采用Vensim PLE软件进行系统仿真,以获取2020年末3种模拟方案的仿真结果。通过对各方案的仿真结果综合分析评价,优选出西安市PRED系统协调发展的最佳方案,并用于预测2020年之前该市社会经济发展的变化趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional PRED system is a large open system with a complex high-order,multivariable,multi-loop and nonlinear feedback structure.The behavior of the system is typically contrary to the internal characteristics of the system.The paper takes Xi’an City as a study case.First,the factors affecting PRED system were analyzed,and then it uses system dynamics method to construct PRED system model of Xi’an.Based on the system structure,three schemes(namely: no-doing scheme,environment control scheme and comprehensive control scheme) about the harmonious development of the PRED system in Xi’an are established and simulated with Vensim PLE to study the operation of different scheme through 2020.The adoption of a comprehensive analysis and evaluation about the results of the simulation schemes were conducted and the trend in socio-economic development of Xi’an before 2020 was also forecasted.更多还原