【摘要】 采用改进的信息熵值法和多元线性回归法对河南11个村1251农户调研数据进行处理,基于时空耦合的概念,定量分析了不同地理环境条件下农户自主发展能力与农户持续增收的内在关系。得出如下结论:①农户自主发展能力影响农户农业收入,但耕地和地形等地理因素的影响更为突出,且耕地增长的贡献度在山区最大,丘陵次之,平原最小,能力增长的贡献度恰好相反。②农户自主发展能力和家庭劳动投入显著影响农户非农收入,地理因素对家庭非农收入没有直接影响,地域通达性通过影响家庭自主发展能力间接影响家庭非农收入。③不同阶段农户自主发展能力对农户非农发展的贡献度不同。初级阶段,农户非农发展几乎完全依赖劳动投入的增长,能力增长几乎没有起作用;中级阶段,能力增长和劳动增长的贡献各半;高级阶段,能力的贡献度又跌至15%。④农民非农收入报酬率的增长依赖农户能力增长和地域通达性提高。在低报酬阶段,能力的贡献度约占2/3,但进入中下报酬阶段后,报酬的增长完全依赖地域通达性的增强,进入中上报酬阶段后,地域通达性的作用开始下降,到达高报酬阶段后下降到零,这时报酬的增长完全依赖能力的增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the improved method of entropy value of information and the multi-linear regression, we analyze the data for 1251 households of the 11 villages in Henan province. Based on conception of copulas of time and space, we quantitatively analyze the essential relation between farmers’ self-developing ability and sustainable income-increasing for various geographical environments. We conclude: (1) Farmers’ self-developing ability influences farmers’ agricultural income, but the effects of geographical factors, such as the farmland, types of geographic conditions, etc. are more significant. The effect of farmland size is the largest for the mountainous areas, the less for the hilly areas, the smallest for the plain areas. The effect of farmers’ self-developing ability is opposite to the effects of farmland size. (2) The farmers’ self-developing ability and farmers’ inputs of labor have a great influence the non-agricultural income of farmers, while the geographical factors do not have direct effect on farmers’ non-agricultural income. The transportation conditions of the location of farms have indirect influence on agricultural income of farming households through influencing farmers’ self-developing ability. (3) In different periods of farmers’ developing process, the contribution of farmers’ self-developing ability’s to farmers’ non-agricultural income is different. In the beginning stage of non-agricultural development of farmers, non-agricultural development of farmers relys almost completely on the inputs of labor, and the self-developing ability has almost no effect on the non-agricultural development of farmers. In the intermediate stage of non-agricultural development of farmers, the developing ability and input of labor contribute 50% to the non-agricultural development respectively. In the late stage of development, the ability’s contribution falls to 15% . (4) The increment of return of non-agricultural income relies on the improvement of the ability of farmers and transportation conditions. In the period of lower return, the contribution of ability is about 2/3, but in the period of lower-middle return, the increment of return relies on the improvement of transportation conditions. In the upper-middle period, the effect of transportation conditions begin to decrees, and in the period of high return, the effect of transportation conditions comes to zero while the increment of return relies on the increment of ability.更多还原