【摘要】 运用消除趋势波动分析法(DFA)分析元谋干热河谷1956~2006年分季节降水量变化趋势,对1978~2006年进行滑移分析。结果表明,元谋干热河谷分季节降水量时间序列至少在50 a的尺度上具有微弱的Hurst效应:夏、冬季具有较弱的长期持续性及较强的随机性,春、秋季具有较弱的反持续性。植被生物量和盖度的年际和季节变化所引起的下垫面性质改变,是干热河谷分季节降水量变化的重要原因。元谋干热河谷降水量的变化对当地植被恢复和农业生产活动等具有较强的指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The dry-hot valley is a special kind of ecosystem degradation region in Hengduan Mountains.Changes of seasonal precipitation have important influnces on its landscape patterns and agricultural activities.Based on the method of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA),the trend of seasonal precipitation of Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley during 1956-2006 and moving series during 1978-2006 are anlyzed.The results show that there is an obvious Hurst Effect at scale of 50 years as to the time series of seasonal precipitation of Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley—relative weak persistent long-range and relative strong randomness in the summer and winter,relative weak anti-correlation in the spring and autumn.Change of underlying surfaces,caused by the annual and seasonal changes of biomass and vegetation coverage,is contributed to the seasonal variations of precipitation.更多还原