【摘要】 通过分析中国北方近57年来气温时空变化特征,结合GIS空间分析技术和数理统计理论,对中国北方气温变化进行定量化分析,阐述其时空演变规律。结果表明:近57年来中国北方气温总体呈上升趋势,升温趋势最快的是东北地区(0.25℃/10a),最慢的是西北东区(0.12℃/10a)。各区年均、1月、7月气温的增温趋势呈非对称性,年均气温的升高主要得益于1月气温的贡献,7月各区升温趋势普遍较慢;中国北方年均气温变化存在突变现象,东北区是在1994年(a=0.05),华北区是在1997年(a=0.05),西北西和西北东分别为在1996年和1997年(a=0.05);年均气温变化具有明显的周期性,东北区分别以21a、6a、11a为第一、第二、第三主周期,华北区气温周期为22a,西北西区周期为12a,西北东区第一、第二、第三主周期分别为15a、8a、5.5a;中国北方各区气温变化一致性较强,都呈现上升趋势,但各区之间相关关系存在差异,东北和华北年均气温相关系数达到0.79(a=0.01),1月东北区和西北西区相关系数为0.19,7月东北区和西北东区的相关系数为0.26,未达到显著水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of the temperature variation in recent 57 years in northern China,combining with GIS spatial analysis techniques and mathematical statistical theory to analyze the quantitative variation of temperature in northern China and illuminate the evolution of the spatial and temporal change of temperature.The results showed that the changing trend of temperature was an overall upward,and the trend was remarkable with a rate of 0.25℃/10a in the northeastern region(NE) and 0.12℃/10a in the eastern part of the northwestern region(NW).The changes among the January,July and annual mean temperature were not symmetrical,the annual mean temperature was ascending because January temperature plays a critical role,the trend of temperature ascending in July was not distinct in each region;there was the phenomenon of abrupt change in the annual mean temperature in northern China,it occurred in the NE region in 1994a(a=0.05),northern region in 1997a(a=0.05) and the NW region in 1996a(a=0.05);the periodicity of mean temperature was distinct,the first main period was 21a,the second was 6a and the third was 11a in the NE region,it was 22a in northern China and 12a in the west of NW region,there were three periods in the west of NW region,being 15a,8a and 5.5a;there was a consistency in variations of the temperatures in every region of northern China.The correlation was 0.79(a=0.01) between NE and northern China,it was 0.19 and 0.26 between NE and northern China in January,and 0.26 between NE and part of NW in July,and they were not remarkable.更多还原