【摘要】 受全球变暖和人类活动的影响,全球海平面上升威胁海岸带社会经济的可持续发展,已成为各国政府和科学研究关注的焦点。在总结前人研究成果的基础上,本文对区域海平面上升的生态损失评估进行了初步探索。以深圳市蛇口半岛为研究区,预测研究区2100年相对海平面上升幅度,评估海平面上升对风暴潮、土地淹没的影响以及造成的生态价值损失。研究结果表明:(1)风暴潮加剧。2100年相对海平面上升1m,100年一遇最高潮位重现期减为小于10年一遇。海平面上升后50年一遇和100年一遇最高潮位分别为3m和3.3m,威胁沿岸工程设施安全;(2)淹没沿岸土地。研究区内4816.2ha土地受到淹没威胁,占研究区面积的16.6%,其中以建设用地和养殖水域为主,分别占淹没区面积的近60%和30%,面临巨额经济损失;(3)生态价值损失在不同重现期潮位下分别达到1966.55万元/a、4472.92万元/a和5052.83万元/a,地均价值损失分别占深圳市地均GDP(2000年计价)的0.8%,1.1%和1.2%,使深圳市地均GDP(2000年计价)存在约一个百分点的潜在损失。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warming is an important process which may profoundly influence the global ecosystem, and the corresponding sea-level rise may be one of the most concerns for its unpre-dictable disastrous risk, and so forth threatening the sustainable development of coastal zone. People living in coastal areas are faced with the dilemma between exploring the coastal land for economic development and shunning the risk of inundation caused by sea-level rise. The issue has brought up wider attention of scientists including ecologists, meteorologists and economists, and of local governments who aim to facilitate their strategy to deal with it. In this paper, we take Shekou Peninsula as a study site, a threatened-site by sea-level rise located on the southern part in Nan-shan district of Shenzhen. We predict the relative sea-level rise in this area based upon the previ- ous researches and estimate the following effects, including storm surge, land inundation and loss of ecosystem service value. According to the investigation, under the scenario of sea-level rise: (1) the occurrence of storm surges will be intensified. The relative sea-level rise in the study area could be 1m by 2100, and the recurrence period will be shortened from 100 years to less than 10 years. The tides of 50-years-once and 100-years-once will be 3m and 3.3m, which bring about a greater threat to the construction of urban facilities near the coast. (2) The land of coastal zone will be inundated. There will be nearly 4816.2 hm2 of land in the risk of being inundated, making up 16.6% of the study area. The main categories of the inundated areas are using as urban construction and marine cultivation, occupying nearly 60% and 30% of the whole inundated area respectively, and this may cause great economic benefit lost. (3) The reduction of ecosystem service value will get to 19665.5, 44729.2 and 50528.3 thousand yuan per year under different tide heights respectively of 1m, 3m and 3.3m, and the loss of ecological value per unit area may take up nearly 1% GDP of per unit area in Shenzhen (according to price in 2000).更多还原