【摘要】 本文从出口结构视角重新审视了改革开放以来中国迅速增长的出口贸易和经济增长间的关系。在包括经济增长、技术进步、出口总量增长和结构变化的4变量系统中,利用LA-VAR模型的实证分析表明,无论是工业制成品占出口总额比重还是工业制成品出口中资本技术密集型产品比重的变化,均对我国经济增长和技术进步具有重要影响。本文的政策涵义是,要充分发挥出口贸易对经济发展的贡献,不应拘泥于出口总量的高低,而应深刻理解出口增长及其结构变化对我国宏观经济运行的全方位影响及其作用机制,致力于出口为国内产业结构升级、技术进步和增长方式的转型服务,取得出口贸易的动态效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using Lag-Augmented VAR Model,the paper empirically analyzes the effects of exports and their structural change on the economic growth and the transformation of growth mode in. We conclude that both the change of the proportion of the manufactured goods in export volume and the change of the proportion of the export of capital-and technology-intensive manufactured goods in the export of manufactured goods have important influence on China’s economic growth and technology advancement. The paper indicates that it does not suffice to attend export growth;export structure is also an important factor for China’s trade interest and development goal.更多还原