【摘要】 在逐步放弃钉住美元的人民币汇率的市场化改革进程中,其汇率行为表现出日益复杂的特征。特别是受近期全球性金融危机的冲击,人民币兑以欧元为代表的非美元货币汇率行为的复杂性明显加剧。在对汇率系统进行非线性检验和混沌性判别的基础上,将一种改进的相空间重构C-C算法与层反馈网络结合建模的汇率行为研究方法,能够为2005年汇改以来的人民币兑欧元汇率行为提供较为准确的描述与预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the process of the RMB exchange rate marketization reform of gradually abandoning the practice of USD-pegging,its behavior has shown increasingly complex features.In particular,affected by the recent global financial crisis,the complexity of the exchange behavior between RMB and non-dollar currencies represented by EUR has become increasingly acute.Based on nonlinearity test and the chaos judgment on the exchange rate system,this paper puts forward a research method to study the exchange behavior with the modeling of combining an improved phase-space reconstruction C-C algorithm with the layer feedback network.This method can provide fairly accurate description and forecast for the behavior of the RMB/EUR exchange rates after the exchange rate system reform in 2005.更多还原