【摘要】 本文在分析径流物理成因的基础上建立一个旬降雨与旬径流非线性相关模型,并将该模型应用于大伙房水库流域。模拟预测结果表明,该模型模拟精度高,模型结构简单,可操作性强,为应用美国的GFS预报系统和中国气象局的213模式10~15d降雨预报信息,预报旬径流量提供一个有效方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the analysis of runoff physical causes, the paper builds the nonlinear correlation model between rainfall of ten days and runoff of ten days, which would be applied in the basin of Dahuofang reservoir. The result shows that the model has a high simulation precision, simple structure and handy operation, which provides an effective method for forecasting the runoff of ten days by using the GFS forecast system of USA and ten to fifteen days rainfall forecast of 213 mode of China Meteorological Administration.更多还原