【摘要】 简单介绍了现有的太阳辐射模型及其特点,研究了短时间尺度太阳辐射数据的时间序列模型,提出相关的建模、模拟与预报方法。建立了4种时间尺度的ARMA模型,验证了ARMA模型能够准确反映存在于短时间尺度太阳辐射数据中的相关性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With an introduction of the model of the sun shine,and its character,this paper studies the time-series model of short-term solar irradiance,and establishes modeling,simulation and forecasting methods for short-term solar irradiance model.It develops 4 time-scale ARMA models,and verifies that ARMA model can accurately represent the correlation existing in short-term solar irradiance time series.更多还原