【摘要】 在澄清人力资本概念的基础上,根据时间和价值两个维度对人力资本进行分类,基于人力资本投资价值的不确定性,构建了贝叶斯动态模型,在模型中引入时间和后续行动的影响因素,提出用贝叶斯学习法则不断修正投资者的先验概率,以更科学合理的后验概率来评价人力资本,同时给出了后验概率矩阵,举出具体的例子进行分析验证并对后续研究进行展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis classify the human capital by two dimensions--time and the value,which based on the previous reseacher’s study of the human capital.For the uncertainty of the human capital investment value,this paper constructs a Bayesian dynamic model.The model adds two parameters to it,including time and later action of the group members.Because this model adopts the Bayesian learning rule to modify the Prior Probability,and uses the Posterior Probability to evaluate the human capital,it becomes more sensible and scientific.At the same time,we put forward a posterior Probability Matrix,and use an example to inspect and analyse.In the end,the later study of this thesis is prospects.更多还原