【摘要】 为了掌握高速公路未来的安全状况,通过有效地控制各种影响因素,减少交通事故,增进高速公路安全,在路段划分和影响因素分析的基础上,利用收集的多条高速公路数据建立了基于广义线性回归的高速公路事故预测模型,通过比较泊松、负二项、零堆积泊松和零堆积负二项4种概率分布模型回归的结果,最终确定了负二项分布形式的事故预测模型,并利用弹性分析的方法确定了模型中单个变量对事故的边际影响.研究表明:环境变量和交通流变量对事故的发生有较大影响.更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of section division and influence factors’ analysis and the collected data of freeway Accident Prediction Model was established with Generalized Linear Regression method.Through comparing the regression results of Poisson,Negative Binomial,Zero-inflated Poisson and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial 4 kinds of statistical models,the Negative Binomial distribution model was chosen to be the best APM finally.The elasticity analysis for determining the marginal effects of the independent variables was introduced,and the results indicated that environmental variables and traffic flow variables have great influence on freeway accident.更多还原