【摘要】 采用地方统计资料分析黔中清镇市1949~2006年耕地的数量变化、1992~2002年耕地变化的空间差异和耕地坡度分布变化,计算最小人均耕地面积和压力指数,建立初步的粮食安全预警机制。研究表明,1949~2006年清镇市耕地变化的总体趋势是不断减少;1992~2002年相对变化率由靠近市区和贵阳的东南部向西北部递减;耕地分布的坡度有向2°~15°集中的趋势;1973年之后,耕地压力指数保持在大于1的水平,处于粮食安全警戒状态;4种情景模拟的结果表明,未来清镇市耕地压力也难以得到缓解。更多还原

【Abstract】 Local statistical data were used to analyze the quantitative changes of cultivated land from 1949 to 2006,the spatial distinction of cultivated land changes and the slope distribution changes of cultivated land from 1992 to 2002 in Qingzhen City were analyzed.The minimum cultivated land area per capita and pressure index were calculated to set up the primary food security early warning mechanism.The research results showed that the cultivated land changes from 1949 to 2006 in Qingzhen City showed an overall decreasing trend.The relative change rate from 1992 to 2002 decreased from southeast(near to urban region and Guiyang) to northwest.The slopes of cultivated land distribution were concentrated between 2° and 15 °.After 1973,the pressure index of cultivated land remained above 1,being in the food security alert state.The simulation results of four scenarios showed that the cultivated land pressure in Qingzhen City was difficult to be alleviated in the future.更多还原