【摘要】 [目的]建立泰州地区小麦赤霉病发生程度的动态预测模型。[方法]以1987~2006年泰州地区小麦赤霉病发生程度为研究对象,以旬为时间跨度,选取相关系数较高且稳定性好的预测因子,然后在逐步回归分析方法的基础上,集成建立泰州地区小麦赤霉病发生程度的动态预测模式。[结果]泰州地区影响小麦赤霉病发生程度的主要是4月下旬平均相对湿度、5月中旬平均相对湿度。从整体气象条件来看,降水日数和平均相对湿度对小麦赤霉病的发生在气象条件上为一定的诱因。预测模式的回报检验显示该模型的预测效果比较理想。[结论]该研究为小麦赤霉病的有效防治提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] The aim was to establish the dynamic forecasting models for occurrence degree of Fusarium graminearum in Taizhou area.[Method] With the occurrence degree of F.graminearum in Taizhou area in 1987-2006 as the research object and a period of ten days as the time span,the forecasting factors with higher correlation coefficient and good stability were selected and the dynamic forecasting models for occurrence degree of F.graminearum in Taizhou area was established on the basis of the stepwise regression method.[Result] The factors influencing the occurrence degree of F.graminearum in Taizhou area was mainly the average relative humidity in the late April and middle May.From the whole meteorological condition,the 2 meteorological conditions of the precipitation days and the average relative humidity were the meteorological inducements for the occurrence of F.graminearum.The examination of the forecasting mode showed that the forecasting effect of the model was ideal.[Conclusion] The research provided the basis for the effective control of the F.graminearum.更多还原