【摘要】 本文利用投入产出技术、计量经济模型等数量经济分析方法,从增加值的角度就汶川地震对四川灾区及全国2008年经济增长的影响进行了测算。测算结果显示:灾区经济遭受重大损失;由于地震影响具有局部性,且灾区经济总量占全国比重较小,再考虑到救灾及灾后重建活动对经济的拉动,此次地震基本上不会改变全国经济的增长幅度。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the impact of Wenchuan Earthquake on affected area’s economy and national economic growth is calculated. Several methods are combined to analyze the effect, such as: input-output technique, econometric and other quantitative tools. The study mainly focuses on the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on each industrial sector’s value added. The result shows that the economic loss of affected area is enormous; but the impact is local and limited because the affected area takes only a small portion of national GDP. Furthermore, given the post -earthquake construction that would drive relevant economic activities, it can be concluded that the GDP growth of China in 2008 will not be notably affected.更多还原