【摘要】 大都市郊区的耕地兼具生产、生态服务和社会保障功能,在城市化、工业化的背景下,合理确定大都市郊区的耕地保有量是目前耕地保护政策的一个难点。本文以经济发达的大都市郊区——北京市大兴区为例,采用预留法、粮食需求法和回归分析预测法分别构建了大兴区耕地保有量的预测模型,在一定假设条件下对耕地保有量进行预测,提出耕地保有量的若干方案及其预测结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 The plantation in metropolitan suburb is functional in production,ecological service and social guarantee.It is difficult to determine rational plantation preservation in metropolitan suburb for the existing policy based on the rapid urbanization and industrialization.This paper makes a case study of Daxing district in Beijing where is developed in economy,establishes three prognostication models for plantation preservation quantity based on reservation method,provision needs method and regressive analysis,which are employed to prognosticate the plantation preservation quantity based on some supposals,and presents some approaches to plantation preservation quantity.更多还原