【摘要】 水安全危机是人类进入新世纪以来在生存及发展方面所面临的最严重挑战之一。研究科学合理的水安全战略成为区域可持续发展的重大课题。针对区域水战略问题涉及众多因素且各因素之间动态关联的特点,提出了基于水战略方案优选的兼容度极大化动态组合评价模型(CMM-DCEM),并将其成功地应用于我国广东省北江下游及其三角洲地区水安全战略方案优选评价。评价结果及模型基于不确定性的敏感性分析结果证明:CMM-DCEM实现了主、客观赋权方法以及单一评价模型的融合,使用实码加速遗传算法求解目标函数,克服了传统的组合评价方法计算繁琐的不足,评价过程更加科学合理。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the 21st century,water security crisis is one of the most severe challenges for existence and development of human society;hence research on scientific water security strategies becomes magnificent for regional sustainable development.In this paper,in view of the dynamic and complex correlation among the elements concerning water security strategy,the Compatibility Maximum Model based Dynamic Combined Evaluating Model(CMM-DCEM) was proposed and applied into selecting optimal water security strategy for the North River Basin lower reach and delta region in Guangdong Province of China.The case study results and sensitivity analysis on uncertainty prove that CMM-DCEM achieves the integration of subjectively and objectively weighting methods and the combination of single evaluation models;furthermore,CMM-DCEM involves Real Coding Genetic Algorithm(RAGA) during modeling,thus shows great improvement comparing with traditional combined evaluating methods in calculating complexity.更多还原