【摘要】 将敏感性指数定义为气候产量与气候生产力之比、适应性指数定义为趋势产量与气候生产力之比、两者的比值定义为脆弱性指数,利用黑龙江省70个县(市)农业生产资料和21个气象台站1986-2000年的日气象资料,计算分析黑龙江省粮食生产对气候变化影响的脆弱性。结果显示,从多年平均来看,黑龙江省粮食生产的适应性指数整体都比较高,并且南部地区高于北部;大兴安岭山区和嫩江平原区的敏感性指数较高;脆弱性指数的空间布局与敏感性指数相似;从时间变化上来看,在研究时段内三个指数都有增加的趋势,但敏感性指数的增强幅度最大,脆弱性指数的增加幅度减小。研究结果对定量评价该省粮食生产对气候变化的响应程度具有重要意义,并且该方法简便可行,为此类研究提供一种新的思路和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Sensitivity index was defined as the climate yield divided by climate potential productivity.Adaptation index referred to the trend-yield divided by climate potential productivity.Vulnerability index was equaled to sensitivity divided by adaptation.Based on the date of agricultural production in 70 counties and cities and of meteorology in 21 meteorological stations during 1986-2000 in Heilongjiang Province,the vulnerability of grain crop yields to impacts of climate change in Heilongjiang Province was calculated and analyzed.The results showed that at the annual average level during 1986-2000,the Adaptation index of grain crop production in Heilongjiang Province was relative high as a whole,but it was higher in south than that in north.The most sensitive and vulnerable regions were Daxing’anling and Nenjiang Plain.From the time scale,the adaptation,sensitivity and vulnerability index in Heilongjiang Province had an increased trend.The increase of the sensitivity index was most significantly.Because of the increased adaptation index,the increase of vulnerability index was reduced.The research provided a new and simplified method to quantitatively assess responses of the grain crop production to the climate change in Heilongjiang Province.更多还原