【摘要】 针对冰厚数据的无规律性及随机波动性,建立动态灰色拓扑预测模型,实例预测渤海海域的冰厚,预测值与实际值很好吻合,表明该方法的有效可行性。根据未来各年的预测冰厚样本,估计剩余服役期的极值冰厚Weibull分布参数,进而确定平台服役后期的评估载荷,从而为老龄平台的安全评估提供更为可靠的环境载荷参量。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering the irregularity and random fluctuation of ice thickness data,a dynamic gray topological model is established.The ice thickness in Bohai is predicted by the model as an example,and a good fitness is revealed between the prediction and practical values,which shows that the proposed approach is feasible and effective.Based on the predicted ice thickness specimens,the parameters for ice thickness Weibull distribution in remaining service term are estimated,and the assessment loading in later service period is obtained.In this way more reliable enviroment load parameter for safety assessment of aging platform can be provided.更多还原