【摘要】 目的通过对宜昌市1951—2006年疟疾发病趋势进行分析,运用时间序列分析建立适当的模型,对疟疾的发病进行预测,为制定预防和控制措施提供依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法分析宜昌市1951—2006年疟疾发病情况,应用SAS8.2软件建立适当的时间序列模型,对2007—2011年疟疾病发率进行预测。结果宜昌市1951—2006年疟疾报告发病率介于0.18/10万～2629.94/10万之间,波动较大。结论宜昌市2001—2006年疟疾总体发病比较平稳,呈下降趋势,但仍应继续做好监测预警工作,控制疟疾的发生和流行。更多还原

【Abstract】 OBJECTIVE To inform the measures for disease control and prevention through the analysis on data of Malaria in Yichang from 1951 to 2006. We forecast the incidence trend trough building the proper model by time series analysis. METHODS The descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemic situation of Malaria and to understand forecast the incidence rate of 2007 by building proper time series model with SAS 8.2. RESULTS Malaria incidence rates in Yichang were between 0.18～2 629.94 per ten thousand from 1951 to 2006. The fluctuation was great. CONCLUSIONS The incidence trend of Malaria is generally downward in Yichang from 2001 to 2006. However,it should do surveillance to avoid outbreak of the Malaria.更多还原