【摘要】 水库大坝突发事件应急预案是水库大坝风险管理的重要组成部分,近年来水库管理机构相继开展了突发事件应急预案的编制。但所编制的应急预案是否能够实现预定的风险管理目标,亟需建立切实可行的方法加以检验。基于地理信息系统技术,通过模拟研究区受灾居民点最佳撤离路径和撤离时间,提出了定量评价水库大坝突发事件应急预案有效性的方法,并通过实例应用,为今后进一步开展应急预案的有效性评价研究提供了基础和参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The emergency plan is an important part of the dam risk management.The administrative organizations of reservoirs have recently compiled many emergency plans.But it is necessary to establish a feasible method to verify whether these emergency plans implement the goal of expected risk management.By simulating the best evacuation routes and time of the flooded residential points in the research area using GIS,a quantitative method is put forward to assess the effectiveness of the emergency plan.Through a case study,the results show the present method can be applied for further researches on the effectiveness evaluation of emergency plans.更多还原