【摘要】 讨论了近几年来国内关于煤炭产需量预测的方法以及预测结果。并在此基础上综合使用多种预测方法如时间序列法、GDP线性回归法、灰色系统法、煤炭消费(生产)弹性系数法等,对未来10 a中国煤炭的生产量和需求量进行了预测,预测结果与国家煤炭"十一五"规划基本一致。最后,根据预测结果提出了相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper discusses some forecasting methods of coal demand and supply in China and related forecasting results.Integrating with Time Series Model,Linearity Regression Model of GDP,GM(1,1) and Elasticity Coefficient Model of coal,the paper forecasts the coal supply and demand in the next 10 year in China.The forecasting result is consistent with the State Coal 11th Five-year Plan.Based on the forecasting result,some policy advice is provided.更多还原