【摘要】 根据闽江七里街流域水文实测资料信息,利用新安江三水源模型对该流域实时洪水预报进行了研究,分别采用自回归模型和自适应洪水修正方法对预报洪水过程进行了实时修正.分析结果表明,对预报洪水过程进行实时修正,能大大提高预报精度,采用自适应洪水修正方法具有较强的实时跟踪系统动态变化的能力,其修正效果优于自回归模型.更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the relevant hydrological data,and by using the Xin’anjiang model of three water sources,the real-time flood forecasting for Qilijie basin is studied.An autoregressive(AR) model and an adaptive adjustment method are both used for real-time correction of the floods.The results indicate that the real-time correction for flood process can improve the precision of flood forecasting;and the adaptive adjustment method has a powerful ability for tracking dynamic system.It is also shown that the correction results of the adaptive adjustment method are better than that of the auto-regressive model.更多还原