【摘要】 多年来对河流径流量进行预报,一直是水文工作者追求的目标之一,但由于全国各地水汽来源不同,河流特性千差万别,因而用一套通用的预报方案不能够准确、及时地预报,以达到防洪抗旱的能力。介绍了用频谱分析进行枯水径流分析和预报的基本方法,并用该方法对岩溶地区南明河流域径流进行预报分析和建模。模拟预报结果表明,该流域径流量存在3个显著枯水周期(2,4和9 a左右),预报结果可为南明河流域经济发展提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Forecast of river runoff has been one of the objectives that hydrologists persevere to pursue for decades.However,because of different sources of water vapor throughout the country and the features of different rivers,using a common set of forecasting options can not give an accurate and timely prediction for flood prevention and drought controlling capabilities.Spectrum analysis is used to analyze and forecast low water runoff.Models are developed through forecasting runoff analysis of Nanming River basin in the karst area.Simulated results indicate that the forecasting of basin runoff involves in three notable low water cycles(two years,four years,and around seven years).Result from forecast can provide a basis for the economic development of Nanming Rive basin.更多还原