【摘要】 目前对泥石流的危险性评价方面使用的方法有模糊数学法、人工神经网络、GIS等。但这些方法均缺乏系统间由量变到质变的非线性突变特征。运用突变级数法将突变理论和模糊数学相结合,针对甘肃省岷县6个流域单元进行了危险性评价,采用多准则多目标决策问题的基本思想和步骤,不需对评价指标赋以精确权重,它只考虑指标的相对重要性,避免了直接使用难于确定且主观性较大的"权重"概念,因而显得更加简捷方便。同时,评价结果与当地实际情况相符合,通过实例证明了该方法在泥石流危险性评价方面的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present,there have many methods for the debris flow harzard assessments,such as fuzzy mathematic,artificial neural network,GIS etc.But,these methods are also short of nonlinearity catastrophe characteristic from quantitative change to qualitative change among systems.We use Catastrophe Progression Method to evaluate the harzard of the six valley units in the Min County of Gansu Province combining catastrophe theory with fuzzy mathematics.This paper adopts the main steps and ideas of a method using catastrophe theory called catastrophe progression method and only considers the relative importance of the index,so the method avoids the subjectivity for weight decision and works simply.The resuts are found to be coincident with practical situation,so it proves the catastrophe progression method works well at the aspect of the danger evaluation to the debris flow according to the factual case.更多还原