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中国养老保险隐性债务未来规模的预测
The Prediction of Prospective Scale of China’s Implicit Pension Debt
【摘要】 伴随转制而产生的隐性债务问题,正在成为制约中国养老保险制度健康发展的"瓶颈".解决养老保险隐性债务的基本前提是要测算债务规模.本文建立养老保险隐性债务的预测模型,对中国养老保险隐性债务规模进行预测并得到结果.
【Abstract】 Appearing with the system’s reform,the problem of the implicit debt is becoming a bottleneck which restricts the healthy development of China’s pension system.The basic condition to solve the implicit pension debt is to calculate the scale of debt.In the text,I establish a model to predict the scale of China’s implicit debt and get the result.
【关键词】 隐性债务;
双随机模型;
Wiener过程;
预测;
【Key words】 The implicit debt; Dual random model; Wiener process; Forecasting.;
【Key words】 The implicit debt; Dual random model; Wiener process; Forecasting.;
【基金】 国家自然科学基金(70521001,70531010,70571004)
- 【文献出处】 数理统计与管理 ,Application of Statistics and Management , 编辑部邮箱 ,2008年02期
- 【分类号】F842.6
- 【被引频次】24
- 【下载频次】820