【摘要】 以三峡水库为例,建立了基于降水预报信息的降水随机模拟模型,提出了将预见期降水随机模拟模型与概念性水文模型相耦合的概率水文预报模型,并进行了入库流量预报。该模型能充分利用降水预报信息,能定量描述水文预报结果的不确定性,概念清楚、易于构建,具有推广应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 A stochastic simulation model was introduced for rainfall simulation according to rainfall forecasting information,and a probabilistic hydrological forecast model coupling rainfall stochastic simulation model with conceptual hydrological model was proposed.The probability forecasting of daily inflow for Three Gorges Reservoir was provided as an example to illustrate the application of the presented model.In the model,rainfall forecasting information can be adequately utilized,and the uncertainty of hydrological forecast can be quantified by variance and the confidence interval etc.,with the feature of simple concept,and easy establishment,the presented model will be used in this area.更多还原