【摘要】 利用美国每天4次发布的NCEP10mU、V风资料和舟山各港口海岛自动气象站网的每小时最大风和极大风资料,将30°N附近各经度上NCEP的风速资料在一定假设下订正到海面状态,并非线性地内插到站点位置,合成后与自动气象站资料在16个方位上进行对比,分别得到两者之间的关系式。在取得一个样本的时段内(3h),其起始时刻和结束时刻各有一个NCEP10m风资料预报值,将这两个预报值分别与自动气象站资料建立一个关系式,使得3h内的风有两个预报方程,预报时可以得到两个预报值。将此两个预报值进行最简单的集合得到集合预报值,试报结果表明用此方法预报效果令人满意。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using The NCEP’s four times daily 10 m U, V wind data and the Zhoushan islands automatic weather stations maximum winds and maximum gust wind per hour, will be near 30°N on each longitude the NCEP’s wind speed data under certain assumptions correct to the sea situation and non-linear interpolate to the site location, carry on contrast respectively on 16 direction with automatic weather station data after synthesize and get both of the relation. In obtaining a sample period (three hours), the moment of its start and end each time a NCEP 10m winds forecast value, the observation value of these two forecasting with automatic weather station data to establish a relationship, making the three hours There are two wind forecasting equation, forecasting, prediction of the two can be. This prediction two values are a collection of the most simple prediction value of the collection, test results showed that the reported use of this method forecast satisfactory results.更多还原