【摘要】 利用陕西省82站33a(1971—2003)逐月降水量资料,结合大气环流的重现期,用秋、冬季降水量场与4—10月降水量场的相关关系建立预测模式,预测4—10月全省降水量的分布。预测试验初步得出,秋冬季降水量场与4—10月降水量场相关系数为0.902 8~0.921 8,预测模式拟合相对误差为4%~7%。1964年和2003年全省性涝年回报试验结果表明,降水量距平符号一致率均在85%以上。对2007年4—10月全省降水量分布做了独立样本预测试验,降水量距平符号一致率为66.7%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using precipitation data in the near 33 years from 82 stations in Shaanxi province,and according to atmospheric circulation recurrence,the correlation of precipitation field in autunm and winter as well as in Apr.—Oct.has been set up,and the distribution of precipitation for whole province from Apr.to Oct.has been predicted.The basic result of this research is that the correlation coefficient of precipitation from autumn to winter and from April to October is from 0.9028 to 0.9218,the relative error of the result is from 4% to 7%.The forecast result of 1964 and 2003 indicates that the departure sign consistency of precipitation is over 85%.As for the result of precipitation of the whole province in 2007 from April to October,this consistency of precipitation is 66.7%.更多还原