【摘要】 暴雨是江苏的重要气象灾害之一,为了对暴雨预报气象服务效益作出恰当的评估,我们设计了预报准确率V、预报服务覆盖率P、预报服务时效率N、可能预防能力Z等四个指标,给出了定量评估暴雨预报气象服务效益的数学模型,并且用实例说明了该模型的实用性和可操作性。预报服务覆盖率、预报服务时效和预报准确率与服务效益成正比,各个因子都会很大程度上影响服务效益值。预防能力越强,气象服务的效益越大,这也说明了气象预报只是一种信息,信息价值的体现还在于应用信息群体的决策和防御能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to evaluate service benefit of torrential rain forecasting quantitatively,a mathematical model was build with forecasting accuracy(referred as V),percentage of coverage(referred as P),time validity(referred as N) and damage preventability(referred as Z).Service samples of torrential rain forecasting proved the practicability and maneuverability of the model.Torrential rain forecasting coverage,validity of service and accuracy are in direct proportion to service benefit which is affected by the above three factors,respectively.The stronger capability of preventing weather disaster is,the more benefit is gained from forecasting service.Therefore,torrential rain forecasting service is a kind of information whose value lies on the decision-making and defence capability of the applying information colony.更多还原