【摘要】 "国外粮食产量业务预报系统"是在Windows 9x/2000/NT平台下,应用Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0工具研制的。主要包括数据管理、数据处理、数据统计分析、平均单产预报、种植面积估算和总产量预报等模块,利用该系统可分别对美国小麦、美国玉米、美国大豆、印度小麦、印度稻谷、巴西大豆、中国稻谷、中国小麦、中国玉米9种粮食作物进行生长期间农业气象条件分析、平均单产预报、种植面积估算和总产量预报。系统结构合理、操作简便、自动化程度高。以美国玉米为例对该系统进行介绍。美国玉米总产量预报2001~2004年最大误差8.4%(绝对值),平均误差2.4%,平均准确率在90%以上;2005年预报正确,能够满足业务服务的需要。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Overseas Crop Yield Forecast System was developed with the tools of Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0 under the Windows 9x/2000/NT platform.The system consists of such modules as data management,data processing,data calculation and analysis,average unit yield forecasting,planting area estimation,total production forecasting,etc.It can analyze the agrometeorological average unit yield,estimate planting areas,and forecast the total productions of American wheat,American corn,American soybean,Indian wheat,Indian rice,Brazilian soybean,Chinese rice,Chinese wheat,and Chinese corn.The system has a reasonable architecture and is easy to use and highly automatized.Taking American corn as an example,a description is made to this system.The biggest error of the total production forecasting of American corn from 2001 to 2004 is 8.4%(absolute value),and the average error is 2.4%.The forecasting is totally accurate for 2005.The average forecasting accuracy of the system is above 90% and it can meet the current demands of agrometeorological service.更多还原