【摘要】 建立了一种利用历史数据进行台风路径预测的模型。该模型应用关键点相似度法,利用地理信息系统(GIS)的空间分析功能,建立当前实测台风中心位置的缓冲区,从历史台风数据库中搜索路径相似的台风,确定各条路径的相似度;再依据相似度确定台风的相似权重,进行24~48 h的台风路径趋势的快速预测;根据每6 h的预测结果对预测结果进行修正。实例研究表明,24 h预测误差小于140 km,48 h预测误差小于240 km。更多还原

【Abstract】 A model was developed based on the similarities of key points on typhoon tracks to forecast typhoon tracks using historical data.The centers of active typhoons were compared with historical records of similar typhoons in a geodatabase using Geographic Information System(GIS) spatial analyses.The typhoon tracks were weighted based on their similarity.The typhoon center positions in 24 h or 48 h were then quickly forecasted based the similarity weights.The result was updated by forecasts every 6 h.The mean error of the model is less than 140 km for 24 h forecasts and less than 240 km for 48 h forecasts.更多还原