【摘要】 开展气候变化对冬小麦产量影响的数值模拟对制定农业与水资源政策以适应气候变化具有重要意义。该研究采用ThuSPAC-Wheat模型与CERES-Wheat模型,经田间试验资料率定后,利用北京气象站1951—2006年资料进行气候变化下冬小麦潜在产量的数值模拟和分析。结果表明,过去55a冬小麦潜在产量有所降低,水资源消耗有所减少,主要原因是辐射量下降。气候变化情景分析表明,辐射下降引起潜在产量和水资源消耗量减少;CO2浓度增加潜在产量增加,水资源消耗量减少;气温升高,潜在产量和水资源消耗量无显著变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Simulations are used to develop agriculture and water resources policies to adapt to the effects of climate change on winter wheat production.The ThuSPAC-wheat model and CERES-wheat model,both calibrated with field data,were used to simulate winter wheat production in Beijing from 1951 to 2006.In the past 55 years,the wheat production has decreased due to the reduction of the solar insolation.Analyses of future climate change scenario show that both the wheat production and the water use will decrease with decreasing insolation and the production will decrease with increasing CO2 concentrations.Neither the wheat production or the water use will be strongly affected by increasing air temperature.更多还原