【摘要】 影响耕地的因素决定了耕地未来的发展动向。为此,运用灰色系统理论中的关联分析法,分析了社会经济因素对重庆耕地数量的影响程度,其大小依次是总人口、农业、非农业人口、工业、国内生产总值和建筑业等,并对其结论进行了分析;根据重庆近几年的耕地变化数量,建立了GM(1,1)预测模型,经检验,这种模型具有一定的精确性和可靠性,运用该模型预测了2010年和2015年重庆市耕地的数量;同时指出,由于客观原因,灰色理论具有一定的局限性,它无法对一些定性的因素进行分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The factors that affect the farmland develop the future of it. This paper first used the correlation analysis of gray theory to analyze the impact of the socio-economic factors on the amount of farmland in Chongqing and the order is total population, agriculture, Non-agricultural population, industry, GDP and so on. This paper also made a analysis on the result. Secondly it established GM (1,1) model based on the amount of change of the farmland in recent years in Chongqing, and after being tested, this model had a certain degree of accuracy and reliability, and then the model was used to predict the amount of farmland in 2010 and 2015. Finally this paper pointed out that gray theory had some limitations because of objective reasons. It can’t make Quantitative analysis on Qualitative factors.更多还原