【摘要】 本文使用一个CGE全球模型——GTAP来预测全球变暖和人口增加对农业贸易的影响,结果显示高纬度地区将获益,而低纬度地区将受损;北美小麦出口的重心将从美国转向加拿大,中国将取代东盟成为主要的稻米出口国;农业经济占GDP很大比重的发展中国家将受到更大的负面冲击。更多还原

【Abstract】 The global warming caused by greenhouse and the rapid population growth will have a far-reaching impact on agriculture.In this study,a CGE global model-GTAP is used to predict the impact of global warming and population growth on agricultural trade.The results show that high-latitude region will benefit,and low-latitude areas will suffer;Wheat export center of North American changes fromthe United States to Canada,China will replace ASEAN as a major export country of rice;Developing countries whose agricultural economy has a large GDP proportion will be even greater negative impacted.更多还原