【摘要】 利用IPCC数据分发中心提供的模式集成结果和多年的观测资料,建立大尺度气候状况(主要是降水与气温)与区域地理位置和海拔的统计降尺度关系,并用独立的观测资料检验这种关系,实现西北地区高分辨率气候空间分布;然后把这种关系应用于AOGCMs输出的大尺度气候信息,预估西北地区未来的气候变化情景.结果表明:与20世纪后半期相比,未来30年中国西北地区将普遍增温,增温幅度显著的地区在甘肃中东部、内蒙古、宁夏、陕西中北部、青海东北部和新疆的天山及阿尔泰山,增温幅度为0.5～1.0℃;降幅较大的地区在塔里木盆地,降幅为0.5～1.32℃;降水普遍增加,增加比较显著的地区有新疆的塔里木盆地南部、阿尔泰山和天山,陕西省南部,增加幅度为25～78 mm/年,降水减少的地区在高原区,青海省最为显著,减少幅度为81～108 mm/年.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the integral output of AOGCMs and observation data,the projections of climate change in the coming 30 years in Northwestern China have been presented in this study.Some conclusions from the study might be drawn as follows:The average air temperature would rise significantly in future 30 years.Warming would most obviously take place in eastern Gansu,Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,northern Shaanxi,northeastern Qinghai,Tianshan Mountains and Altay Mountains in Xinjiang,by about 0.5～1.0℃. However,the average air temperature would decrease in western Xinjiang,especially in Tarim River Basin for about 0.5～1.32℃.The average precipitation would increase in northwestern China in the coming 30 years relative to climate baseline,especially in the southern Tarim River Basin,Altay Mountains and Tianshan Mountains and southern Shaanxi.It would increase by about 25～78 mm/a.Precipitation would decrease most prominently in Qinghai by 81～108 mm/a.更多还原