【摘要】 应用概率模型计算得出,在奥运会比赛中东道国获奖牌数,是它们到客场比赛获奖牌数均值的3.6倍;是它们在奥运会举办年上届和下届奥运会比赛中获奖牌数均值的1.85倍,东道国的金牌率比它们到客场参加奥运会比赛的金牌率多28.1%.并依此,预测2008年北京奥运会中国体育代表团获奖牌数在100枚左右,获金牌数在45枚左右。更多还原

【Abstract】 The performance won by each country in the Olympic game is empirically studied,using the method math analysis.The result showed that there is a large home advantage.The home country wins 3.5 times their away numbers of medals,and 1.85 times their average in the games immediately before and after their home games.There is also evidence that the home team wins 28.1% their away percentage of gold medals.The probability model predicted home ground advantage would give china team about 100 medals,with 45 gold.更多还原