【摘要】 生产能力快速形成与劳动力规模庞大是我国两大基本国情,它们使西方传统经济理论失去了对中国经济及人民币汇率问题解释的能力。作者尝试提出一种新的解释,基于经济发展阶段和劳动力规模的解释。一方面,我国经济景气与生产能力的形成过程是重合的,因此经济过热时人民币升值的压力反而最大;另一方面,我国劳动力规模庞大限定了人民币汇率升值的边界,人民币不满足大幅升值的条件。最后,本文提出了在人民币汇率稳定与宏观经济稳定之间实现平衡的可能的方法,即小幅调整的汇率政策与微调式的利率政策的搭配。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rapid increase of production capacity and large scale labor force is wto of China’s most outstanding characteristics, which make the west traditional economic theories lost its ability to explain Chinese economy and RMB exchange rate. The author tried to put forward a new interpretation, based on the stage of economic development and large-scale-labor. On one hand, China’s economic boom and formation of the production capacity are in coincidence, and then pressure of RMB’s appreciation is the biggest when the economy is overheated; on the other hand, large scale of China’s labor force limits the boundary of RMB’s appreciation, that is, the conditions to revaluate RMB does not exist. Finally, the author pointed out the method to realize the balance between the RMB exchange rate stability and the macroeconomic stability, that is, the mix of slightly adjustment of the exchange rate and fine-tuning of the interest rate.更多还原