【摘要】 根据米脂县1971-2004年气象资料,利用Thomthwaite Memoria模型,在分析该县气候变化趋势的基础上,计算并预测了气候生产力对气候变化的响应。结果表明:年平均气温以0.045℃/a的速率递增,远大于全国同期增温速度,20世纪90年代为近34年来最暖期,且冬季气温升高(变暖)对年平均气温升高(变暖)贡献最大;年降水量递减率为-0.248 mm/a,夏季递减速率远大于冬季;气候生产力与年降水量增减变化步调一致,但变化趋势却相反,且该县年降水量对气候生产力的影响程度远大于气温的影响,气候暖干化致使气候生产力利用率仅为21.44%;"冷湿型"气候对该县农作物生产有利,公顷产量将增加4.66%,"暖干型"气候对农作物生产不利,气候生产力将减少17.12%。更多还原

【Abstract】 After analyzing the climate change trend in Mizhi County,Shaanxi Province,in this paper the response of climate productivity to climate change is calculated and predicted using the Thomthwaite Memoria model based on the data of the main meteorological factors observed during the period of 1970-2004.The results show that the average annual temperature is increased by 0.045 ℃/a,which is much higher than the temperature increase in whole China during the same period.The 1990s was the warmest period since recent 34 years,and the contribution of temperature increase in winter to the average annual temperature increase is the highest.Annual precipitation in the county is decreased by 0.248 mm/a,and the precipitation decrease in summer is much higher than that in winter.The change of climate productivity accords completely with that of annual precipitation,but their change trends are opposite,and the effect of annual precipitation on the climate productivity is much more significant than that of temperature in the county.The utilization ratio of climate productivity is only 21.44% due to the warming-drying trend of climate.Cold-wetting climate is the most advantageous for crop production in the county,and the crop yield per ha.can be increased by 4.66%;contrarily,warming-drying climate is the most disadvantageous for crop production,and the climate productivity can be decreased by 17.12%.更多还原