【摘要】 利用广东省86个站1951~2006年的气象资料、地理信息资料和灾情等,对暴雨的致灾因子、综合影响指标及其在灾情评估中的应用进行了研究。结果表明,暴雨的致灾因子包括降雨量、暴雨强度、降雨持续时间、灾害影响面积等指标中的11个因子,这些因子之间相关显著。利用主成分分析对11个致灾因子进行综合简化,得到了一个物理意义清晰,且方差占总方差大部分的暴雨综合影响指标。根据暴雨综合影响指标,分级评判暴雨的影响程度,可以实现对暴雨灾情的灾后快速评估和预评估。更多还原

【Abstract】 An integrated index for rainstorm impact is built in this paper,using rainstorm induced disaster data,GIS data and meteorological data of 56 years(1951-2006) from 86 stations in Guangdong Province.11 factors including precipitation,precipitation intensity,duration and affected area etc.were chosen to depict the rainstorm hazard.Being closely correlated,these factors are integrated and simplified by Principle Component Analysis(PCA) to establish an integrated index for rainstorm impact,which has clear physical meaning and whose variance can explain most of the total variance.Application of the index proved it to be useful and practical in rainstorm producing disaster assessment before and after it happens.更多还原