【摘要】 根据水电工程导流方案的选择与导流建筑物的投资费用、工期、系统风险率及其风险损失之间的关系,提出确定决策者效用函数的方法;运用多目标决策理论建立基于效用的施工导流方案决策模型,对考虑决策者的风险偏好拟定的导流方案集进行优选。实例分析表明,基于效用的施工导流方案多目标决策模型能够反映决策者的风险偏好,按照正隶属度极大原则优选导流方案,使决策者获得最大的满意度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the relation between the choice of diversion schemes and the investment cost, period, risk, its risk loss of diversion structure, the paper puts forward the utility function of decision makers. When calculating three decision indexes of risk, period and utility of risk loss, this paper presents a multi-objective decision-making method for diversion schemes considering the utility of risk loss by applying multi-objective decision-making theory. The case study shows that the result of decision making by the multi-objective decision model based on utility reflects the decision maker’s favor to his risk preference and his fullest satisfaction.更多还原