【摘要】 由于目前缺少较好的数学模型对管道类连续系统进行可靠性分析,将连续系统离散成由若干实体单元组成的一个"串联系统".应用最小次序统计量推导出连续系统强度分布函数的Weibull表达式.通过参数变换法确定连续系统的强度分布,而且强度分布能通过实验所确定的参数来表示.应用最大似然估计法对连续系统强度分布的参数进行估计.建立了系统级应力-强度干涉模型,能够反映单元间的相关失效的影响,并模拟连续系统的可靠度与其长度之间的关系.研究表明,所建立的可靠性模型为不同尺度的连续系统的可靠性评价提供了依据,并且大尺度连续系统的可靠度具有下限值.更多还原

【Abstract】 Because of lack of valid mathematical model to analyze the reliability of a continuous system such as pipeline,the continuous system is discretized to become a series system composed of a great number of virtual elements.A Weibull expression of the strength distribution of continuous system is deduced by minimal order statistic,then,the strength distribution is determined by parameter transform and able to be expressed by the parameters obtained from tests,and those parameters are evaluated using the maximum likelihood estimate.As a result,a reliability model of system level stress-strength interference is developed available to reflect the failure dependence among segments,and simulate the relationship between reliability and length of continuous system.It is shown that the reliability model developed can provide a basis for the reliability assessment of continuous systems of different sizes,and the reliability of a large-size continuous system is lower bounded.更多还原