【摘要】 城市建成区规模的迅速扩张是目前福州市土地利用变化中的一个显著特点。城市建成区规模的扩张受到社会、经济、人口等多种因素的影响,用传统方法对其进行预测比较困难。鉴于BP神经网络和多元回归模型在该领域内的广泛应用,本研究分析了1998-2005年间福州市城市规模的变化趋势,以福州市建成区为例对多元回归模型和BP神经网络在此类研究中的应用进行了对比。经检验,BP神经网络比灰色模型拟合良好,这是对建成区面积预测方法有益的探索。更多还原

【Abstract】 The fast growth of construction land is a significant character in recent land use variation in Fuzhou city. Because city is a complex system and the increase of const ruction land area was propelled by social , economic and human factors. So it is difficult to predict the const ruction land area by traditional methods.This syudy analyse the tendency of Fuzhou city scale change between1998 and 2005,comparing the multi-regression analysis model and BP neural Network model in predicting the construction land area. The effect shows BP neural Network model is more recision.it hopes that it can contribute to the study on predicting method.更多还原