【摘要】 医疗废物是一类危害极大的危险废物,引起了世界各国的广泛重视。为方便对医疗废物的集中管理与处置,需要对医疗废物产量进行预测研究。目前,由于国内还没有医疗废物产量确切的统计数据;因此,本文首先选择通过建立数学模型的方法对近10年间医疗废物进行产量测算;而后采用城市垃圾产量预测方法中常用的灰色模型及多元线性回归模型分别对测算的医疗废物年产量进行预测,比较二者的模拟精度,得出后者预测更为可靠。同时,分析应用数学模型测算中存在的不足,为进一步研究提供思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Medical waste is one kind of hazardous wastes,so it is attached importance to the countries all over the world.In order to develop the management and disposal of medical wastes,the outputs should be predicted and researched.Recently,due to lack of the exact statistic data,the mathematic model has been established to calculate the approximate ten years’medical wastes at first in this paper.Later,the grey model and multivariate regression liner model which are often used in the prediction of municipal wastes are also applied to predict the previous calculating results,comparing the accuracy of simulation.It is concluded the latter one may have more credibility.Simultaneously,the calculating disadvantages of the applied model are analyzed,then these are thought to be improved in the next step.更多还原