【摘要】 目的以宝鸡市2003年3月1日~2006年2月28日的4个监测点的逐日PM10浓度监测值以及宝鸡市同期的地面气象要素监测值为研究对象,进行宝鸡市PM10污染四季预报研究。方法采用因子分析法,按春、夏、秋、冬四季分别建立PM10污染预报模型。结果通过四季气象要素的因子分析,春季、夏季、秋季、冬季的相关系数矩阵中各提取7个、8个、6个、7个公共因子,分别解释了原有变量总方差的85.779%、86.986%、88.693%、85.389%,总体上,原有变量的信息丢失较少,使用因子分析较为理想。结论由因子分析法建立的宝鸡市PM10污染浓度四季预报方程的准确率达到了81.70%、81.48%、78.19%、75.67%,等级命中率为100%,对宝鸡市空气中PM10的污染的控制与治理有一定的借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aim Taking the daily PM10 concentration observed values from 4 sampling spots in Baoji City,Shaanxi,China from Mar.2003 to Feb.2006 and the meteorological element observed values during the corresponding three years as study object,the paper studies the PM10 concentration pollution forecast in Baoji City.Methods Applying factorial analysis,the paper respectively establishes forecast models for the seasons from Mar.2003 to Feb.2006.Results Extracted the factors from the four seasons: seven,eight,six and seven,and they explained the total variance: 85.779%,86.986%,88.693%,85.389%,it is resonable for the model with factorial analysis.Conclusion The accuracy rates of forecast formula in forecast models established using factorial analysis are 81.70%,81.48%,78.19%,75.67%,and the grading probability of hit is 100%,and it provides certain references and proof for the PM10 concentration pollution integrated control in Baoji City.更多还原