【摘要】 垃圾问题是制约社会发展的一项因素。自2002年澳门特别行政区赌权开放后,澳门旅游业发展迅速,大量游客蜂拥而至,加上投资移民政策,为澳门经济的发展带来活力。然而,澳门本身地少人多,土地本身就是一种稀缺的资源。大量人口的拥入,除了人口本身以外,他们所产生的垃圾量亦与时俱增,为环境带来的问题日趋严重,同时亦增加了堆填区的压力。2007年,垃圾焚化中心平均每天要处理的垃圾量为790吨,已达其最大处理能力的88%。因此,确定澳门垃圾产生量的发展趋势对于制定合理的垃圾处理政策是很重要的。这次研究通过研究澳门垃圾产生的成分和过程,在历年垃圾数据的分析基础上,利用STELLA软体建立系统动力学模型去预测澳门垃圾产生量在未来的发展趋势。研究结果显示,2016年,澳门总垃圾的产生量为363 584吨,其中家庭垃圾的产生量为308 220吨,占总垃圾量的85%;其它垃圾(包括工商业垃圾和大件垃圾)的产生量为55 364吨,占总垃圾量的15%。若以现时澳门垃圾焚化中心的处理能力(每日900吨)来看,2012年澳门垃圾的产生量将超过垃圾焚化中心的处理能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Waste problem is the restriction on the development of a society.In 2002,with the ending of the monopoly on gaming industry and the investment immigration policy,the economy of Macao grew rapidly.However,the waste problem in Macao is becoming more and more serious because the output of waste,as well as the population,is increasing speedily and still,the land sources of Macao are rare.In order to cooperate with the future development of Macao,it is quite important that the government makes relevant policies in time.And systematic dynamics can be applied to systematic simulation to the development in the future;the result can be the reference of making policy.According to the data collected by Infrastructure Development Office(GDI),there is 790 ton municipal solid waste incinerated every day in 2006,which reaches 88% of the maximum capacity of Macao Tratamento de Resíduos,Lda(CGS).In this paper the systematic dynamics model is set up by the software STELLA to predict the future trend of the solid waste.The simulation result shows that the output of solid waste 363584 ton in 2016.In which,domestic waste occupies 308220 ton while other waste(including industrial waste,commercial waste and large-scale waste) occupies 55364,which is 85% and 15% of the total solid waste respectively.In 2012,the output of municipal solid waste will exceed the daily capacity of CGS if it is still 900 ton.更多还原