【摘要】 利用东亚地区529个代表站地面历史月降水资料和南海夏季风爆发时间的历史序列资料,对近55年(1951-2005年)南海夏季风爆发时间进行了多时间尺度变化特征分析,并依据夏季降水距平百分率确定了旱涝灾害等级标准,应用合成诊断分析方法研究了南海夏季风爆发时间偏早、偏晚和正常3种典型时态与东亚地区夏季旱涝分布的对应关系。结果表明:(1)在南海夏季风偏早爆发年份,中国长江流域、东北北部、华北局部以及韩国南部、日本南部、蒙古国东部易发生旱灾;中国的华南东部、淮河流域、环渤海北部及中朝边界、韩国北部易发生涝灾;(2)在南海夏季风偏晚爆发年份,中国江南地区、东南沿海、海南岛、东北局部以及日本的东部易发生旱灾;中国华南西部、淮河流域、华北大部、东北东部以及韩国南部、日本南部易发生涝灾;(3)在南海夏季风正常爆发年份,中国的华南南部、江淮地区、中朝边界、中蒙边界以及韩国局部、日本南部易发生旱灾;中国江南西部以及日本大部易发生涝灾。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the historical ground precipitation data of 529 representative stations and the historical time series data on breaking out of South China Sea(SCS) summer monsoon,the character analysis of multi-time-scale change for breaking out time of SCS summer monsoon during 55a(1951-2005)was conducted.According to summer rainfall anomaly percentage,the drought-flood disaster grade standard was worked out.Based on integrated diagnosis analysis,the relationship between summer drought-flood distribution in East Asia region and three typical breaking out time model of South China Sea summer monsoon was researched.The result shows that in three kinds of breaking out years for South China Sea summer monsoon,such as earlier breaking out years,later breaking out years and normal breaking out years,the drought-flood disaster in East Asia appears with different distribution.更多还原