【摘要】 中国近海主要含油气盆地新一轮油气资源评价是继1993年全国第二次油气资源评价之后在政府主管部门指导下完成的又一次较为系统的油气资源评价工作。在继承以往盆地模拟法研究的基础上,评价结果更突出了类比法、各种统计法、综合法(区带评价法)在较成熟勘探区油气资源量预测中的重要作用,使油气资源评价方法的应用与评价参数的选取更趋于完善。本次评价重点预测了渤海、南黄海、珠江口、琼东南、莺歌海、北部湾等盆地的可探明油气地质资源量、可采资源量,并对资源分布,包括地质层位、深度、地理环境(水深及岛屿部分)、油气性质等做出了尝试性预测。通过资源量不同概率分布值表述了上述盆地预测结果的不确定性,并讨论了不确定性存在的可能原因。评价结果表明,渤海、珠江口、北部湾盆地的富油凹陷及其相邻凸起仍然是未来石油储量持续增长的主要地区;莺歌海、琼东南盆地(崖南凹陷及其相邻地区)是未来天然气储量持续增长的现实地区;珠江口盆地白云主凹、琼东南盆地深水区、近海前第三系盆地是未来天然气储量持续增长的主要接替区。更多还原

【Abstract】 The latest petroleum resources assessment for China main offshore basins is another national and systematic survey guided by the government,following the second national petroleum resources assessment in 1993.Besides inheriting the basin modelling method used before,the analogy method,various statistic methods and the integration method(play evaluation method)are emphasized in resources prediction for more mature exploration areas,making the selected assessment methods and parameters more improved.This assessment has focused on proven hydrocarbon resources and recoverable hydrocarbon resources in Bohai,South Yellow sea,Pearl River Mouth,Qiongdongnan,Yinggehai and Beibuwan basins,and has made an attempt at predicting resources distributions(such as stratigraphic formation,depth,geograpic area(water depth or island)) and hydrocarbon properties.The uncertainty of estimated results are described by different probability distributions of hydrocarbon resources,and the possible reasons for the uncertainty are discussed.According to the final assessment results,the oil-rich sags and their adjacent uplifts in Bohai,Pearl River Mouth and the Beibuwan basins are still the main areas where oil reserves can continue increasing in the future.Yinggehai basin and Qiongdongnan basin(Yanan sag and its adjacent area)are the reliable areas where nature gas reserves can contine increasing in the future.The main Baiyun sag in Pearl River Mouth basin,the deep water area in Qiongdongnan basin and the Pre-Tertiary basins offshore are all the new succeeding areas where gas reserves will increase in the future.更多还原