【摘要】 从水泥行业CO2排放的响应行为入手,采用系统动力学方法,构建水泥行业CO2排放的系统动力学仿真模型,并进行验证;识别和分析水泥行业CO2排放的主要驱动力,并设置了基准情景、产业政策调控情景、环境政策强化调控情景进行预测与分析.结果表明,3种情景下水泥消费将在2008年达到饱和点后,转入缓慢增长时期.基准情景下CO2的直接排放量与水泥消费具有相同的规律,而产业政策情景及环境政策强化调控情景下水泥行业CO2的直接排放量将在2008年达到最高点后,出现缓慢下降并逐渐平稳的趋势.水泥消费达到饱和点之前,3种情景下CO2的直接排放都呈现快速增长的态势.政策变量中水泥熟料比重对CO2的直接排放影响最大.在产业结构调整的同时,应尽快降低新型干法水泥的电耗水平,避免CO2的直接排放由热能消耗转移到电能消耗上.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to provide the guidance for environmental management and decision-making, the response action of CO2 discharge from the cement industry was analyzed based on the analysis and predication for its decision-making variable input. Simulation model was built for CO2 discharge by system dynamics, then model verification was performed. Three scenarios, including baseline scenario, cement industry scenario and enhancement of environmental policy scenario, were analyzed for identifying the main driven forces for the CO2 discharge from the cement industry in China. The cement consumption will undergo the low-speed increasing after the maximum in 2008 according to the result of the CISD model. The rule of CO2 direct discharge amount in baseline scenario is similar to that of the cement consumption, while in the case of the cement industry scenario (S1) and enhancement of environmental policy scenario (S2), the CO2 direct discharge amount will reach the peak in 2008, and then gradually decline until stable level. The CO2 direct discharge in three scenarios will rapidly increase before reaching the maximum cement consumption. The clinker proportion has the greatest effect on the CO2 discharge in policy options, and thus decreasing this proportion can substantially reduce CO2 discharge amount. The cement industry should reduce the level of electric energy consumption as soon as possible while making novel dry-process cement, avoiding the switching of CO2 direct discharge from the thermal energy consumption to electric energy consumption.更多还原