【摘要】 采用自组织临界理论研究了中国南方电网发生事故的宏观规律,初步证明中国南方电网具有自组织临界性(SOC)的一些重要性质。一方面,利用变尺度(R/S)分析方法对比分析了北美和中国南方电网的事故符合幂次定律及其发展趋势,同时表明Hurst指数代表的事故发展趋势符合2个电网的实际情况;另一方面,以海南电网为研究对象,建立了模拟电力系统连锁故障的最优潮流方法(OPA)模型,并进行了数值模拟研究,揭示了其SOC特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on complex system theory, the statistic orderliness of power system blackout was investigated in this paper. On the one hand, the statistic data of power system blackouts occurred in North America and China southern power grids were well analyzed. And the relation between the severity of power system blackout and the occurrence frequency of the blackouts were proved to be in accord with the power law. Further more, the R/S method was used to analysis the evolvement trends of these two power systems’ reliability. On the other hand, an OPA model was adopted to study the dynamics process of cascading outages in power transmission systems. Based on this model, a thorough numerical study has been carried out for Hainan Power System, and the results exhibit that this power system has some characteristics of self-organized criticality.更多还原