【摘要】 对防洪调度过程各主要相关参数进行了随机误差识别,结合洪水预报对起始水位、入库洪水、泄流等主要参数的随机性进行分析,应用一次二阶矩法和相应的理论分布函数描述事件的随机分布,对应某一汛限水位的调洪过程不再是一确定过程,而是具有随机分布特性,反映了实际防洪调度中各随机因素的影响作用.并对汛限水位进行了风险评估,主要分析了相应调洪最高库水位的超标风险率,建立风险评价标准.在满足防洪安全的前提下合理地调整汛限水位,以充分利用洪水资源.更多还原

【Abstract】 The random errors of main factors in flood regulation process are identified;and combining flood forecast,the randomnesses of main parameters such as initial reservoir level,inflow flood,outflow flood,etc.,are analyzed.By using the first order second moment method and theoretic distribution,the random distributions of parameters are described;then the routing process of a certain preflood limit water level is random,which can well reflect the random preflood influences in actual regulation.And then risk assessment on preflood limit water level is made;by introducing,the risk standard risk rate exceeding the index is analyzed.Finally,adjusting the preflood limit water level rationally to make full use of flood resources can be realized based on flood safety.更多还原